Dear SSJ Forumites,

Political scientists in particular might like to come to the Shaken workshop on May 24. We are pleased to have Kenneth McElwain presenting. He teaches Japanese and comparative politics at the University of Michigan, and is currently doing research in Tokyo, at Chuo University, on the causes and effects of short cabinet duration.

His talk will focus on the "causes" dimension in
Japan.* Since 2000, general election results have swung wildly, first in the LDP's favor in 2005, and then in the DPJ's direction in 2009. These large vote swings are caused by the "nationalization" of
elections: voters around the country increasingly care about the same issues, and their opinions on those issues trend in the same direction. One "high salience" issue is the popularity of the PM, which has only recently become a strong determinant of election results. Because unpopular party leaders can sink a party's election result, unpopular PM's are sacked quickly, resulting in greater government turnover. The presentation will include some new data on this nationalization of elections, plus some thoughts on how it affects government policy.

The workshop is mainly social science graduate students or recent PhDs--any nationality, any university--but guests are welcome. If convenient please let me know if you will be coming.

John Campbell

*Meetings of the Shaken Social Science Dissertation Workshop start at 12 pm and go to 1:30 and sometimes beyond. The Institute of Social Science provides coffee and tea and you are welcome to bring lunch. The location is a seminar room on the 5th floor in the Akamon General Research (Sougou Kenkyuu) Building. The building is down a little passage to the right after you come through Akamon. It is Bldg 37 on this map:

http://www.u-tokyo.ac.jp/en/about/documents/Hongo_CampusMap_E.pdf