" Responding to Jun Okumura's point about not betting when the odds are against him, is that because I want to bet on 5 reactors restarting, instead of 4, or because he has changed his estimate of the likelyhood of even 4 restarting?"

Did I give any indication that I was backing off from my bid of 4 reactors? (I'll later respond to other points raised in this forum, but not today.)