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April 16, 2012

[SSJ: 7384] Re: A couple of reasons why the electricity has kept flowing despite the nuclear shutdowns

From: Paul Midford
Date: 2012/04/16

My day job is letting up a bit, so I can rejoin this debate to a limited extent.

Jun Okumura responded to my bet proposal on the restart of 10 reactors by the end of the year by proposing 4 instead. I would respond by suggesting that we split the difference and bet on 5 reactors.

Regarding the claim that Japan suffers from a shortage of renewable energy resources, I would argue that this is a myth. Japan has plenty of geothermal, solar, and wind energy resources. The wind fields off the Boso peninsula are among the richest in the world and could make Japan a net electricity exporter, without even considering geothermal or solar. The technology for Japan to fulfill all its electricity needs with renewables exists today, although it is worth noting that wind and solar technology have both been improving rapidly, hence the rapidly falling prices for electricity generated by both. The same goes for storage technology (pump storage, which is an old technology, or flywheel storage, which is a new technology but already commercially used), and smart grids that can deal with fluctuations in power demand and production by the minute, second, or mili-second, rather than by the hour. Nonetheless, even with today's technology both are achievable. However, generating all of Japan's electricity from renewables would take decades, large investments, and most importantly, the political will to do so. Renewables, most notably solar, can help cover shortages during peak summer demand in the short-run, but in terms of overall energy consumption, renewables, currently a bit under 2% of electricity production, are a long term, not a short-term, solution. Whether and when this will happen depends on marshaling the political will (although advocates have strong public support at their
back) and investment, not on technology or resource availability.

On restarting nuclear power plants in the short-run, Asahi Shimbun published a poll today that shows 55% oppose restarting the Oi reactors, versus a mere 28% who support restart. This is broadly consistent with a Yomiuri poll from February that found 53% opposing restarting reactors in general, but more than another February Nikkei poll that found 43% opposed and 41% supporting restarting the reactors. I had not trusted the Yomiuri poll because it did not ask about stress tests, but only "regular inspections."

The Asahi poll also shows why a clear majority now opposes restart: a whopping 70% do not trust the government's safey standards for nuclear plants (versus 17% who do). This result probably helps explain the Noda cabinet's move to put off a final decision on restarting the Oi plant until at least mid May.

Crucially, the Asahi poll found that 66% do not believe government and EPCO estimates about electricity demand and supply (versus 18% who do). The latter is not so surprising, not only because pessimistic estimates about short-fall have proven to be wrong up to now, but also because independent analysts have been poking holes in these estimates. KEPCO estimates a level of electricity demand for this summer that has not been reached for 4 years, and it excludes non-KEPCO sources of electricity, most notably the considerable generating capacity of private companies.

In sum, as I pointed out in several earlier posts (and Gregory Johnson recently echoed), the Japanese public's opposition to nuclear power does not reflect comparatively strong fears of radiation, but new underlying attitudes about nuclear power following the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident, an accident that converted majority support for nuclear power into majority opposition. We are still seeing the ramifications of these new attitudes play out in measurable opinion.

Paul Midford

Approved by ssjmod at 11:29 AM