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* *
*ICAS Event*
*Managing the Challenges of North Korean Collapse*

*Date:* Monday, June 20, 2011 *Time:* 7:00p.m. (Talk will start at
7:30p.m.) *Venue:*
Temple University, Japan Campus, Mita Hall 503/504 4-1-27, Mita, Minato-ku, Tokyo http://www.tuj.ac.jp/about/access/mita.html k.icptrack.com/icp/relay.php?r=1013842329&msgid=1664009
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*Speaker:*

*Discussant: *

Jennifer Lind, Dartmouth College

Peter Beck, Council on Foreign Relations Hitachi Fellow
*Moderator:*
Robert Dujarric
*Admission:* Free (Open to general public) *RSVP:* icas@tuj.ac.jp **If you RSVP you are automatically registered. If possible, we ask you to RSVP but we always welcome participants even you do not RSVP.*

*Outline*

Kim Jong-il's regime will not necessarily go the way of dictators in Tunisia and Egypt, but there are many signs that the regime is entering a difficult stage in which its future may be in doubt. North Korea's neighbors, and the international community more broadly, need a clear understanding of the regional instability that could arise upon the collapse of the North Korean government, the requirements necessary to mitigate this instability, and the potential escalatory risks associated with such a crisis. Lind discusses the various problems potentially associated with government collapse in North
Korea: "loose nukes," a humanitarian disaster, a regional refugee crisis, and civil war. She outlines the various military missions that regional actors may want to perform in order to mitigate this instability, and the rough military requirements of those missions.

Lind argues that --even with highly optimistic assumptions about how collapse might occur-- stabilizing North Korea could require approximately 260,000 to 400,000 troops. This crisis, and attempts to stabilize North Korea, also run substantial risks of escalation between the United States, ROK, and China. Because of the size and complexity of these missions, and because of the perils associated with mismanaging them, advance and combined planning is essential.
Combined planning should include those actors (e.g., China, South Korea, and the United States) who would otherwise likely take highly destabilizing unilateral action to protect their own interests. This research will be published in the Fall 2011 issue of International Security (co-authored with Bruce Bennett of RAND).

*Speaker *

Jennifer Lind is Assistant Professor of Government at Dartmouth. Her research focuses on the international security relations of East Asia. Professor Lind is the author of *Sorry States: Apologies in International Politics*, a book that examines the effect of war memory on international reconciliation (Cornell University Press, 2008). She has also authored scholarly articles in *International Security and Security Studies*, and writes for wider audiences in the Atlantic and Foreign Affairs.
Professor Lind is a faculty associate at the Reischauer Institute for Japan Studies at Harvard University, and a fellow in the US-Japan Network for the Future sponsored by the Japan Foundation's Center for Global Partnership and the Mike and Maureen Mansfield Foundation.

*Discussant*

Peter M. Beck is a Council on Foreign Relations / Hitachi International Affairs Fellow in Japan. Prior to moving to Tokyo, he was the Pantech Research Fellow at the Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University. He has also taught at Ewha University in Seoul, served as executive director of the U.S. Committee for Human Rights in North Korea and directed the International Crisis Group's Northeast Asia Project in Seoul. He was also the director of research and academic affairs at the Korea Economic Institute. He has served as a member of the Ministry of Unification's Policy Advisory Committee and as an adjunct faculty member at Georgetown and Yonsei universities. He holds a BA from the University of California at Berkeley and ABD from the University of California at San Diego.

------------------------------
*Robert Dujarric*
Director* *
*Kyle Cleveland*
Associate Director
*Eriko Kawaguchi*
Coordinator

Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies
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