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June 6, 2011

[SSJ: 6694] A Defeat or a Victory for Kan?

From: Paul Midford
Date: 2011/06/06

Am I the only one on this Forum who thinks that the New York Times and Washington Post coverage of Kan surviving the no-confidence motion is way off base? They essentially said that the only reason Kan survived was because of his promise to step down later. I don't know why any DPJ member who was actually willing to vote for the no confidence motion before he made his very vague promise would change their mind as a result of it. By saying he will step down after the nuclear accident is resolved and Japan recovers, and will pass on leadership to the "future generation" Kan sounds as though he is planning to stay in office for a long time to come. As far as I can see Kan's statement was little more than a fig leaf designed to give political cover to Hatoyama and others who had said they would vote for the no confidence motion, but obviously did not want to carry through that threat because it would have been political suicide.

As far as I can see Kan and the DPJ emerged significantly strengthened. The last vestiges of Ozawa's power were clearly smashed and there is no longer any danger of a split in the party. If Ozawa leaves he will not be taking anyone with him, save for the two who voted for the measure yesterday and were kicked out of the party (one of whom looked visibly nervous and was sweating profusely as he sat in his seat during the plenary session). Nobody else is willing to stake their political future on Ozawa. At the same time I think the LDP and Komeito really hurt themselves with this motion. The Japanese press was full of criticism by ordinary voters and business leaders of the no confidence motion as being irresponsible political gamesmanship during a time of crisis. I even heard bureaucrats who might be expected to be happy to see Kan go express their opposition to bringing up a no confidence motion now. I would expect that Kan and especially the DPJ will get a bit of a short term bump in approval and that the LDP will take a hit. Barring a scandal Kan should now be safe until regular budget enabling laws come up for a vote next year, and perhaps longer if he can scrap together a two-thirds majority with the SDP. In any case, Kan now becomes the first Prime Minister to break the post-Koizumi curse of one year or less PM tenures.

Paul Midford

Approved by ssjmod at 02:49 PM